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Forex Decoded |
Brief history of Forex
trading
Initially, the value of goods was expressed in terms
of other goods, i.e. an economy based on barter
between individual market participants. The obvious
limitations of such a system encouraged establishing
more generally accepted means of exchange at a
fairly early stage in history, to set a common
benchmark of value. In different economies,
everything from teeth to feathers to pretty stones
has served this purpose, but soon metals, in
particular gold and silver, established themselves
as an accepted means of payment as well as a
reliable storage of value.
Originally, coins were simply minted from the
preferred metal, but in stable political regimes the
introduction of a paper form of governmental IOUs (I
owe you) gained acceptance during the Middle Ages.
Such IOUs, often introduced more successfully
through force than persuasion were the basis of
modern currencies.
Before World War I, most central banks supported
their currencies with convertibility to gold.
Although paper money could always be exchanged for
gold, in reality this did not occur often, fostering
the sometimes disastrous notion that there was not
necessarily a need for full cover in the central
reserves of the government.
At times, the ballooning supply of paper money
without gold cover led to devastating inflation and
resulting political instability. To protect local
national interests, foreign exchange controls were
increasingly introduced to prevent market forces
from punishing monetary irresponsibility.
In the latter stages of World War II, the Bretton
Woods agreement was reached on the initiative of the
USA in July 1944. The Bretton Woods Conference
rejected John Maynard Keynes suggestion for a new
world reserve currency in favour of a system built
on the US dollar. Other international institutions
such as the IMF, the World Bank and GATT (General
Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) were created in the
same period as the emerging victors of WW2 searched
for a way to avoid the destabilising monetary crises
which led to the war. The Bretton Woods agreement
resulted in a system of fixed exchange rates that
partly reinstated the gold standard, fixing the US
dollar at USD35/oz and fixing the other main
currencies to the dollar - and was intended to be
permanent.
The Bretton Woods system came under increasing
pressure as national economies moved in different
directions during the sixties. A number of
realignments kept the system alive for a long time,
but eventually Bretton Woods collapsed in the early
seventies following president Nixon's suspension of
the gold convertibility in August 1971. The dollar
was no longer suitable as the sole international
currency at a time when it was under severe pressure
from increasing US budget and trade deficits.
The following decades have seen foreign exchange
trading develop into the largest global market by
far. Restrictions on capital flows have been removed
in most countries, leaving the market forces free to
adjust foreign exchange rates according to their
perceived values.
But the idea of fixed exchange rates has by no means
died. The EEC (European Economic Community)
introduced a new system of fixed exchange rates in
1979, the European Monetary System. This attempt to
fix exchange rates met with near extinction in
1992-93, when pent-up economic pressures forced
devaluations of a number of weak European
currencies. Nevertheless, the quest for currency
stability has continued in Europe with the renewed
attempt to not only fix currencies but actually
replace many of them with the Euro in 2001.
The lack of sustainability in fixed foreign exchange
rates gained new relevance with the events in South
East Asia in the latter part of 1997, where currency
after currency was devalued against the US dollar,
leaving other fixed exchange rates, in particular in
South America, looking very vulnerable.
But while commercial companies have had to face a
much more volatile currency environment in recent
years, investors and financial institutions have
found a new playground. The size of foreign exchange
markets now dwarfs any other investment market by a
large factor. It is estimated that more than USD
3,000 billion is traded every day, far more than the
world's stock and bond markets combined.
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